Iran 'likely' using drones to deliver arms to Houthis: experts

ADEN -- In a report submitted to the United Nations (UN) Security Council last month, the panel of experts on Yemen raised the possibility that drones are being used to smuggle Iranian weapons to Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

Transporting unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), known as drones, along a new air route would avoid surveillance from the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) that patrol the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, analysts in Yemen said.

These forces have regularly seized shipments of Iranian weapons destined for the Houthis along well-known smuggling routes in international waters.

In its February 21 report, the panel of experts said smuggling may be taking place via a new air route -- from Oman to Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

It is likely that drones transporting the weapons drop them into these areas via parachutes, the report said.

Analysing drone debris

According to the panel, a delta wing UAV crashed in the eastern region of Oman on January 28.

While it was initially reported that the UAV was part of the wave of attacks on the United Arab Emirates, Oman told the panel that the craft was travelling in a "north-south direction" and was "not equipped for attack or reconnaissance".

The panel in turn noted that the UAV had technical characteristics "similar to the Waeed delta wing un-crewed UAV, which was first shown in Houthi-affiliated media on 11 March 2021".

According to the panel of experts, the Waeed is "a larger and technically advanced version" of the UAV that was documented in attacks on Saudi Arabia in 2019".

"While Waeed-type UAVs were implicated in attacks on the tankers Mercer Street on July 29, 2021, and Pacific Zircon on November 15, 2022, in the Gulf of Oman, the panel is not aware of the Houthis using them for attacks," it said.

However, the panel inspected the incomplete debris of a Waeed-type UAV that Yemen government forces discovered on the Marib front in September 2020, indicating "this weapon system had been operational in Yemen", it said.

The UAV found in the desert of Oman "could have crash-landed while on a 'ferry flight' to Houthi-controlled territory, possibly constituting a new supply route", it said.

Avoiding maritime surveillance

It is "very likely" that an air route is being used to smuggle Iranian weapons to the Houthis via drones, political analyst Faisal Ahmed told Al-Mashareq, commenting on the report's findings.

One advantage of such a route would be to avoid surveillance ships patrolling the international waters along the sea routes, along which many Iranian arms shipments headed to the Houthis have been apprehended, he said.

The panel's report noted the similarity of the drone found in the Oman desert, the Iranian Waeed-type UAV recovered by government forces on the Marib front and those used in the attack on Saudi Arabia, he said.

Ahmed also pointed to Iran's ability to manufacture drones and provide them to Russia to use in its war against Ukraine, which he said "lends credence to the panel of experts' hypothesis".

"The multiplicity of Iranian arms smuggling routes, by sea, land and air, increases the chances of success of their delivery to the Houthis, and at the same time makes their seizure difficult," he said.

"The Houthis took advantage of the UN-backed truce in Yemen and developed several means of smuggling in Iranian weapons," including flying drones from Oman to Yemen, political analyst Mahmoud al-Taher told Al-Mashareq.

Almost every week, maritime patrols operating in the region announce they have thwarted an Iranian smuggling operation to Yemen, he said.

"At the same time, however, we see escalation by the Houthis on the Yemeni fronts, which shows that the Iran-backed militia does not seek peace but rather to engage in new rounds of fighting," he added.

Multiple areas of smuggling

"It is not surprising that parachutes are being used to deliver parts of missiles and drones, especially given the tools are available, as is Iranian support," political analyst Ahmed al-Sabahi told Al-Mashareq.

"The smuggling of parts for drones, anti-armour and anti-tank munitions, medium calibre weapons and ballistic missile components continues through various methods," he said.

This is accomplished via "tools, agents and large amounts of money, and is carried out with Iranian support, financing, and training", he said.

Al-Sabahi said the drones are one of the means used to smuggle weapons by air, but there also are major sea and land routes.

"When an arms shipment is seized, you can be sure that 10 other ships were able to cross, and this is done via small fishing boats and other methods," he said.

The Yemeni coastline is very long, extending more than 2,500km, and cannot be fully monitored, he added.