'Be very careful': Iran warned of fresh sanctions for supplying Russia with drones

The United States warned Monday (October 17) it would take action against companies and nations working with Iran's drone programme after Russia used the imports for deadly strikes in Kyiv.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also called for European Union (EU) sanctions on Iran, after Kyiv was hit by swarms of "suicide drones".

Ukrainian officials said the strikes killed five people in Kyiv -- including a couple expecting a baby -- and knocked out electricity to hundreds of towns and villages as the country prepares for winter.

Russia's use of Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, makes clear the weaknesses of its domestic industry, analysts said.

Iran has reportedly delivered hundreds of drones to Russia, which Ukrainian officials say are being used in strikes like those launched against cities and energy infrastructure on Monday.

So far two models of Iranian drones have been identified in Ukraine's skies: Shahed-136 and Mohajer-6. Both belong to a type broadly referred to as Medium Altitude, Long Endurance (MALE) unmanned aircraft.

The initial success of the drones comes "from being a new weapon on the battlefield", said Jean-Christope Noel, a researcher at the French Institute for International Relations.

Such drones are "a money-saving move for Russia, because it saves valuable cruise missiles worth $1.5 million to $2 million" per shot, said Sorbonne University researcher Pierre Grasser.

But "their main shortcoming is they can only hit stationary targets", he added.

"They don't pose any threat to troops in the field. The arrival of these drones therefore shouldn't change the course of the fighting."

Russia's 'industrial failure'

Russia is one of the world's largest arms producers, but has still found itself forced to turn to Iran in this case.

"The defence ministry has worked out tactical and technical requirements for drones. And unfortunately most [Russian] manufacturers can't meet them," Russian colonel Igor Ishchuk recently told the country's state-owned TASS news agency.

Although no Russian manufacturer offers long-range suicide drones like the Shahed-136, "they are supposed to have equipment along the lines" of the Mohajer MALE drones, Grasser said.

"The fact they're taking Iranian drones is an admission of industrial failure ... it shows [Russian industry] can't keep up the pace," he added.

Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine have hit a Russian industry already sapped by supply chain disruption during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Russia "no longer has access to Western technological components, and their attempts to mass-produce these types of devices have been fruitless", Noel said.

Tehran can already count on some buyers for its product in the Middle East in Yemen, Lebanon or Iraq, Noel said.

"But American sanctions against any customers make for a hard limit on the number of candidates who might like to arm themselves with this gear," he added.

Sign of 'increased desperation'

"Anyone doing business with Iran that could have any link to UAVs or ballistic missile developments or the flow of arms from Iran to Russia should be very careful," US State Department spokesman Vedant Patel warned Monday.

"The US will not hesitate to use sanctions or take actions against perpetrators," he said.

The Russians are "attacking critical infrastructure like power plants, hospitals, the things that people need in their daily lives that are not military targets", US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.

"It is a sign of increased desperation by Russia, but it's also a sign of the levels that they will stoop to and that we've seen repeatedly when it comes to targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure," he said.

Patel said the United States also believed that Iran's shipment of the drones violated UN Security Council Resolution 2231.

"It is our belief that these UAVs that were transferred from Iran to Russia and used by Russia in Ukraine are among the weapons that would remain embargoed under 2231," he said.

Citing previously released US intelligence, Patel said that some of the Iranian drones being sold to Russia have malfunctioned.

The transfer shows the "enormous pressure" on Russia, which according to US figures has lost 6,000 pieces of equipment since invading Ukraine, he said.

Moscow is "being forced frankly to resort to unreliable countries like Iran for supplies and equipment", he said.

US officials have previously said that Russia, historically a major arms exporter, is also turning to North Korea, while China has rebuffed calls for assistance.