Al-Qaeda's troubles in Yemen laid bare in video message

ADEN -- Al-Qaeda in Yemen is weakened and wracked with internal disputes so severe that it has been compelled to release a video to conceal its internecine struggles and attempt to gin up support from tribesmen, researchers said.

"The year 2022 was full of defections and retreats in the march of al-Qaeda in Yemen," the Nabd media outlet reported, noting the group's "continuation in the path of downfall and decline and the loss of its popular incubator".

During this time, it said, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) lost many areas under its control, in turn triggering the loss of money, manpower and support among certain tribes.

"With the loss of battles, it loses more lands and loses more lives, and with repeated defeats, its leaders and members exchange accusations of negligence, failure and even treason, so internal liquidations and defections multiply."

First video message from Awlaki

An 11-minute video, released on February 14 via al-Qaeda's media arm in Yemen, al-Malahem Foundation, features Saad al-Awlaki, prominent AQAP leader and "emir" of Shabwa province, who serves on the group's shura council.

Speaking on camera for the first time, al-Awlaki praises AQAP leader Khalid Batarfi -- also seen in the video -- and attempts to mobilise Abyan and Shabwa tribesmen to join AQAP against the Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces.

Al-Awlaki and Batarfi are seen together in the clip after reports surfaced in November of emerging tensions between the two over resources and influence, according to the Sanaa Centre for Strategic Studies.

"The leadership dispute began last April when jihadi leaders in Shabwa complained that Batarfi was trying to isolate them, cutting off finances and payments to the families of dead fighters, and refusing to allow them to fight against the Houthis," the centre said in a December report.

By appearing together in the recent video, in which al-Awlaki praises Batarfi, the two leaders apparently seek to show unity, analysts say.

But what that does is further confirm the circulating reports of disputes and tensions, political analyst Faisal Ahmed told Al-Mashareq.

Al-Awlaki's followers see him as the most deserving of the group's leadership, which creates pressure for Batarfi and causes him to focus all his efforts on clinging to power, instead of achieving gains for the group, he said.

According to researcher Abdul Razzaq Mohammed, who studies extremist groups, there has also been a dispute between Batarfi and Abu Omar al-Nahdi, the former al-Mukalla "emir" for AQAP.

Al-Nahdi and a small group of fighters defected from AQAP in 2019, according to the Sanaa Centre for Strategic Studies.

Al-Qaeda is going through its "worst stage ever", Ahmed said, as evidenced by al-Awlaki's speech and his efforts to mobilise the tribes in Abyan and Shabwa to attack the STC, government and Arab coalition forces.

"This confirms the group's abandonment by its social incubator [the tribes], which was its most important source of manpower and strength in previous periods," Ahmed said.

In a recent security campaign, STC forces expelled AQAP from areas of Abyan and Shabwa, over which it had exercised sole control -- including from Omran in Abyan province's Mudiyah district late last year.

Several senior AQAP members also have been killed in recent attacks against extremists in Yemen.

Tacit co-operation with Iran

It is significant, Ahmed said, that "al-Awlaki limited his speech to mobilising the tribes to confront solely the southern forces, to the exclusion of Houthi-controlled areas, which points to serving the Iranian-Houthi project".

There is evidence to support the mutual interest-serving relationship between the Houthis and al-Qaeda, including the Houthis' release of al-Qaeda leaders and elements from their prisons, he said.

Al-Qaeda on February 14 announced a prisoner exchange with the Houthis.

Three days after the announcement, the Houthis released two al-Qaeda prisoners in exchange for three Houthis prisoners, Houthi Prisoners Committee chairman Abdul Qadir al-Murtada said on Twitter.

There also is some evidence of "al-Qaeda withdrawing elements from areas in al-Bayda province, and setting up camps in southern areas in Abyan and Shabwa", he said.

He noted that al-Qaeda is active solely "in the areas controlled by the legitimate government, and not those controlled by the Houthis".

He also pointed to Iran hosting Osama bin Laden's family and now Saif al-Adel, the current leader of al-Qaeda, according to international reports.

The Houthis and al-Qaeda have a relationship that serves both their interests and serves "Iranian interests and agenda", Deputy Minister of Justice Faisal al-Majeedi told Al-Mashareq.

The Yemeni government has submitted files to the United Nations Security Council proving the existence of this relationship, he said.

In October, Yemeni officials said al-Qaeda has been using explosives in Shabwa and Abyan that are much like the ones made with Iranian expertise in Houthi-controlled areas.