Russia intensifies diplomacy with Mali in soft power push

NOUAKCHOTT, Mauritania -- A recent meeting between the Russian ambassador to Mali and a Co-ordination of Azawad Movements (CAM) delegation marks a new phase in the Russian intervention in Sahel region conflicts, analysts said.

Russian ambassador to Mali Igor Gromyko met January 18 with a CAM delegation headed by Alghabass Ag Intalla in the Malian capital of Bamako.

For the time being, at least, Russia's official role in Mali is limited to providing logistical and technical support to Mali's current military leaders, Mauritanian journalist Bashir Ould Babana told Al-Mashareq.

But Russia is throwing its weight into the conflict between the Azawad movements and the Mali regime, he added, seeking to create a new area of influence and leverage outside its traditional circle in the Middle East and Libya.

According to CAM delegation member Attay Ag Mohamed, the substance of the meeting was limited to discussions aimed at "advancing the course of peace between the CAM and the Malian government".

Mohamed said the meeting had taken place as "Russia is a member of the international mediation team in Mali and the follow-up committee in charge of implementing the [2014] Peace and Reconciliation Agreement in Mali".

But Babana suggested that Russia is shrewdly seeking to exploit the void left by the French withdrawal from Mali.

To this end, Babana said, Russia is "presenting to African countries a new strategy based on uniting the peoples of the region and ending the state of war between armed groups, [ostensibly] without Russia having any special agendas".

Yet it would seem evident Russia does have an agenda in the Sahel, he said.

"It indeed has narrow interests in the Sahel region, but it is concealing this under the justification of the desire to achieve reconciliation between all the armed fronts in Mali, and even between the components of Malian society."

"In fact, it is keen on persuading the local populations that all previous problems were caused by France to serve its interests," Babana said.

Little chance of Russian success

Babana said he does not believe Russia will succeed in achieving any reconciliation between the Azawad groups and the Malian government "without political support from Algeria, since the latter has the upper hand in the region".

Russia is unlikely to achieve any breakthrough in the Malian issue, Algerian political analyst Qassem Ras al-Maa told Al-Mashareq.

"The Azawad Movements reject, in principle, the demand for disarmament as a condition for progress in the reconciliation negotiations with the central government in Bamako", he said.

Their rejection is not surprising as the Mali government receives more than $1 billion in international aid for the northern regions, "but unfortunately it has not used it toward development in the Azawad region", al-Maa said.

"There are no schools, hospitals or infrastructure, and corruption is still rampant," he added.

While the political divisions and deteriorating security situation in Mali do not serve Russia's interests, al-Maa said, it is clinging to Mali as "a strategic card to achieve its interests in the region".

Wagner Group escalation in Mali

Russia's diplomatic efforts in Mali were accompanied by military aid to the military regime in Bamako.

This comprised Su-25 fighters designed to support ground forces, and the Czech-manufactured Aero L-39 Albatros aircraft.

Bamako also received Mi-8S helicopters, a Russian transport helicopter of Soviet design, France 24 reported.

This military aid follows a batch Moscow provided to Mali last March, while talks are continuing about an escalation of Wagner Group activity in northern Mali.

The military council in Mali did not disclose the value of recent military aid, said Sid Ahmed Ould Atfil, an expert on conflicts in the Sahel region.

But analysts say these weapons "could help the Malian rulers fill the military void left by French weapons", he said.

Russia is pursuing a two-pronged strategy in Mali, Atfil told Al-Mashareq.

First, it uses "military violence" to achieve its objectives, he said.

Then, it attempts to win over the local population "to accept the notion that Russia is better than France and its allies in safeguarding the interest of the people of northern Mali", he said.

"Human rights is the last thing Moscow thinks about, when it comes to ensuring its interests," Atfil said.

Al-Maa, the Algerian analyst, does not expect Wagner Group mercenaries to leave the Sahel region in the short or medium term.

"Wagner will not leave Mali, nor will it leave al-Jufra air base in Libya, nor will it leave Central Africa or Chad," he said.