Wagner Group's failure to quell extremist violence in Mali raises questions

NOUAKCHOTT, Mauritania -- The recent killing of the chief of staff of Mali's interim president and three others demonstrates the failure of the purported mission of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, observers said.

The Wagner Group -- a private security company led by Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin -- is in Mali to combat terrorism, or so Mali's military rulers and their ally, Russia, claim.

The mercenary group reportedly entered into a lucrative contract to partner with Mali's ruling junta in 2021, with an estimated 2,000 Wagner elements deployed to protect the country's leaders and quell extremist activity.

Wagner is said to be receiving payment of €10 million ($11 million) a month for its paramilitary service.

But observers of the security situation in Africa's Sahel region say the April attack carried out by al-Qaeda linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) proves the Wagner Group is failing in its self-proclaimed mission.

The attack, claimed by the extremist group on April 18, killed three of the Malian president's military escorts near the Mauritanian border, as well as Oumar Traoré, the chief of staff to the head of Mali's junta, Col. Assimi Goïta.

The group also claimed responsibility for carrying out another attack on April 19, killing seven Malian soldiers.

These attacks "are now raising more questions about Wagner's presence in Mali and other African countries that depend on it", said Mauritanian analyst Bakary Sy.

The incident indicates that Wagner may be "incapable of protecting the Malian president and his inner circle", he said.

If this is the case, it would be "a real problem for the leaders of the Malian government, and it will have other repercussions in countries that rely on Wagner operatives to protect the security of their leaders", he said.

Alternately, Bakary said, it could be that "Wagner basically does not care about protecting the interests of the Malian government... but rather focuses its efforts on protecting gold and uranium deposits" in the country.

Uptick in al-Qaeda attacks

With these possibilities in mind, security analysts said they are increasingly concerned about the increase in JNIM attacks on Malian villages.

These attacks are likely to increase "based on the weak response by the Malian army and Wagner elements to the attacks by the al-Qaeda group", said researcher Sayed Ahmed Ould Atfil, who focuses on armed groups.

"Al-Qaeda's strategy is based on exploiting the weaknesses of the supposed enemy, namely the Malian government and Wagner, and it will therefore increase its terrorist attacks on villages and other settlements," he said.

It will stage attacks "to distract the Malian state and prove to the population [their government's] inability to provide security, and moreover its involvement in bringing in an external enemy, represented by Wagner elements", Atfil said.

Meanwhile, the presence of Wagner Group in Mali has contributed to weakening security co-ordination between Bamako and its neighbours.

Atfil pointed to Mali's withdrawal from the "G5 Sahel" group of countries and its withdrawal from the bloc's joint military force.

Bamako leaders also have strained relations with Western countries whose forces help maintain security as part of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA).

The French parliament adopted a resolution Tuesday (May 9) calling on the European Union to formally label Wagner a "terrorist group".

"Wherever they work, Wagner members spread instability and violence," MP Benjamin Haddad said. "They kill and torture. They massacre and pillage. They intimidate and manipulate with almost total impunity."

He said they were not simple mercenaries driven by an "appetite for money" but they "follow a broad strategy, from Mali to Ukraine, of supporting the aggressive policies of President (Vladimir) Putin's regime."

Germany to withdraw forces

Germany, which contributes around 1,000 troops to the MINUSMA peacekeeping mission and has done so since 2013, has decided to withdraw its forces from Mali over the coming months.

"Whether we like it or not, what is happening in the Sahel affects us," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in a May 4 statement.

This was a "clear reference to the turbulent security situation resulting from Wagner's presence", said journalist Bashir Ould Babana.

The German government has said it intends to remain faithful to its pledge to consolidate security in the Sahel region by refocusing its security-related commitment to Niger, Mauritania and Gulf of Guinea countries.

Berlin announced its decision to withdraw from Mali at the end of 2022, saying conditions are no longer conducive to its continued participation in the mission.

This came after the Mali military rulers who seized power in Bamako in 2020 called off their alliance with France and its European partners in the fight against terrorism, opting instead for a military and political alliance with Russia.

These moves, according to Nigerian journalist Karim Mega, have done more harm than good to the security of the Sahel region.

JNIM proliferates in the border area between Mali and Niger, he said, noting that terror groups have stepped up their attacks recently in Mali and other Sahel countries.

Mali's military rulers are seeking to lift the country out of the political crisis triggered by the military coup they staged in 2020 against the rule of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita.

The transitional government has set June 18 as the date for a referendum on the country's new constitution, two months after cancelling the original date, March 19.