Russian mercenaries enter Libya via isolated base in Egypt, evidence suggests

CAIRO -- There is credible evidence that a newly established Russian base near the Egyptian port of Sidi Barrani is being used as a logistical station and regional staging point for the Wagner mercenary group, analysts told Al-Mashareq.

From this isolated area in the Egyptian desert in the northwest of the country, Russian mercenaries transit across the border into Libya, where the Wagner Group has been fighting since 2018 to prop up Libyan strongman and Russian client Khalifa Haftar.

The agreement to establish the Russian base, due south of the Mediterranean port, was made in conjunction with an agreement to house a Russian-built nuclear power plant in nearby Dabaa.

The decision to locate the Russian operation in Sidi Barrani is partly due to its proximity to Libya and partly because its remote location shields it from the scrutiny its activity might attract in a more prominent location.

The Russian presence and activity in Alexandria's military port, for example, are not unlike the naval military presence and activity of many other countries, military expert Ahmed Abdo told Al-Mashareq.

Many warships dock in the Alexandria port "on formal visits, for maintenance or to pick up needed supplies", he said, noting that there is no Wagner Group presence in this port, nor any suspicious transfer to or from Russian warships.

"Egypt would never take such a risky step," he said, noting that the port is open to everyone and such activities would be easily detected.

A Wagner Group presence at the Alexandria port would cause huge problems for the Egyptian leadership, he said, "because of the bad reputation this company has worldwide on account of its dubious deployment around the world and the operations it carries out".

Hence the establishment of the new Russian base in a remote, secluded area with no tourist activity.

Clandestine Russian base

While all seems above board in Alexandria, there is credible information that the Wagner Group "uses a military base located near the port of Sidi Barrani, in the Matrouh region, 100km from the Libyan border", Abdo said.

He said the location of that base "is quite far away from the public eye and close to Libya, which facilitates the transfer of elements to and from that country".

These transfers are carried out in a clandestine manner, he said, possibly using Russian military vehicles or civilian means of transportation and buses that move freely and without suspicion in the area.

This type of activity would not necessarily attract attention in the coastal area, "which is popular with tourists and teems with such buses day and night", he said.

Russian-Egyptian negotiations on the establishment of a military base in Egypt began in 2013 following the change in Egypt's political leadership, Abdo said.

They were marked by intense wrangling until 2017, when the matter was approved in principle by both sides, he said.

There are signs that the Sidi Barrani base is being used by the Russians, he noted, though this "was never announced and has remained secret to date".

Recently, however, "news began to spread on a very narrow scale that it is being used as a logistics base for the Wagner Group under Russian military cover, to secure the company's logistical movements in Libya", he said.

The base reportedly includes more than 20 warehouses and two helipads.

Egypt and Russia have had diplomatic relations and military co-operation since the era of the Soviet Union, political analyst Ramez Mamdouh told Al-Mashareq.

Despite the ebb and flow of this relationship amid various global and regional political changes, it has maintained a degree of stability, he said.

Russian inroads in Egypt

Sidi Barrani is a tribal region, "characterised by the excellent relationship that local residents maintain with the Egyptian armed forces", Mamdouh said, making it a natural choice as a location for military bases.

Military observer Shaher Yassin said the establishment of a Russian military base in Sidi Barrani is likely related to "the Russian-Egyptian agreement on the establishment of a nuclear power plant in the Dabaa area near the port".

An agreement to establish the Dabaa nuclear power plant was signed in 2015 but did not go into effect till 2017.

Egyptian Minister of Electricity and Renewable Energy Mohamed Shaker and Alexey Likhachev, CEO of Russia's state-owned atomic energy company Rosatom, announced the start of construction on July 20.

"Egypt needs this plant for the energy that it will provide, which would allow Egypt to export additional quantities of gas and fuel that are currently used in energy production," Yassin said.

"The Russian side is fully aware of this need, and there is no doubt that it took advantage of that during the negotiations that led up to the final agreement on the establishment of the power plant," he said.

"Russia usually imposes the presence of elements of its army or elements belonging to Russian security companies, Wagner in particular, to protect these facilities during the trial run period and for the duration of the operation period."

With this precedent, Yassin said, "the military base dossier and the nuclear power plant dossier unquestionably intersected, especially since Russia considers Egypt a strategic entry point to the Middle East, the Gulf and Africa".

For Russia, he added, the establishment of a military base in Egypt would contribute to "increasing and facilitating the Russian deployment in these areas, and even rapid intervention if the need arises".