Study warns of Yemen, Saudi border concerns

A new report raises concerns that as al-Qaeda loses ground in Yemen's Hadramaut province and other parts of the country, it might try to regroup along the country's north-eastern border with Saudi Arabia.

With the Houthis (Ansarallah) already entrenched along Yemen's north-western border with the kingdom, security repercussions for both countries will be enormous if al-Qaeda succeeds in gaining a border-area foothold, it said.

The Abaad Centre for Strategic Studies report, issued October 19th, said this outcome would create a "border of hell" between the two countries.

It also stressed that Yemen's security can only be established through a strong sovereign state with a comprehensive national doctrine.

Abaad Centre director Abdulsalam Mohammed spoke with Al-Mashareq about the study, which is part of a series of studies titled, "The Brutalisation of Terrorism in Yemen".

Al-Mashareq: What is the importance of releasing the report at this time?

Abdulsalam Mohammed: The centre conducts many studies on various security, military, political, intellectual and social issues, and even economic and humanitarian issues that have a direct impact on the overall situation in Yemen.

In the case of the first part of "The Brutalisation of Terrorism in Yemen" study, which carried the title, "The Fragile War against al-Qaeda", the centre completed the study two months before its release.

But the timing was appropriate, as the release came a few days before the designation of Yemeni figures as global terrorists. [On October 25th, the US Treasury announced it would impose sanctions on terrorism financiers in Yemen, targeting eight individuals and an organisation for supporting the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS) and al-Qaeda in Yemen. The move was made in partnership with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and the UAE].

Al- Mashareq: Why did you call it "the border of hell"?

Mohammed: The border was given the "hell" designation in the event that al-Qaeda seizes control of the north-eastern stretch of the Yemeni border with Saudi Arabia, while the Houthis control the north-western part of it.

The area would thus become a battle zone that would negatively affect regional security, and the security of Saudi Arabia and Yemen in particular, particularly in light of reports that al-Qaeda is withdrawing from Hadramaut and migrating with its entire arsenal to the north-eastern desert.

Al-Mashareq: Does al-Qaeda pose more of a threat in Yemen than ISIS?

Mohammed: ISIS's conflict with al-Qaeda weakened it, as did its reliance on non-local figures.

Other reasons for its disadvantage include al-Qaeda's extensive experience [in Yemen] and the funding it generated as a result of gaining control of a number of cities during the Houthi coup in Sanaa. These included al-Mukalla in Hadramaut, Zinjibar in Abyan, Azzan in Shabwa and Radaa in al-Bayda.

Al-Qaeda also views Yemen as the group’s launch point, and thus does not allow any competition by ISIS. Moreover, some al-Qaeda leaders joined ISIS and then left it, seemingly having penetrated and weakened the group.

Al-Mashareq: Why are the areas controlled by the Houthis and their ally, former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, not witnessing a proliferation of al-Qaeda and ISIS fighters?

Mohammed: First, we must understand that all militias, regardless of their ideology, have the same mindset, namely to grab as much of the sick man’s bequest as possible, and by sick man here I mean the Yemeni state, which militias of all kinds are targeting to gain control. Hence, militias seek to [conquer and] divide and avoid confrontation.

Second, al-Qaeda originated in the 1990s in areas known for their difficult terrain that includes deep valleys, rugged mountains and open desert, as this gives it manoeuverability and the ability to escape, withdraw and attack.

These areas are located in Abyan, al-Bayda, Hadramaut and Shabwa provinces.

Al-Qaeda established a presence in these areas in order to win over and recruit sympathisers, taking advantage of their poverty, ignorance and lack of sources of income.

These conditions exist among the desert tribes, in contrast to the northern tribes, who rely on the cultivation of qat to make a living.

Still, many attacks have occurred in the areas controlled by the Houthis for which al-Qaeda or ISIS have claimed responsibility, such as the attacks on the Badr and al-Hashoush mosques.