Al-Qaeda in Yemen faces strikes, defections

Al-Qaeda in Yemen is fracturing as a result of defections and internal divisions in its ranks as its fighters are hunted down by Yemeni and international forces and expelled from the areas the group once controlled, analysts told Al-Mashareq.

The elite Hadrami forces, backed by coalition airstrikes, last week raided an al-Qaeda hideout at a farm west of the port city of al-Mukalla, killing 30 gunmen and capturing others over the course of a 24-hour operation , the army said.

The raid came in response to intelligence indicating the group was planning to carry out attacks to undermine Hadramaut's security, the army said, adding that four Yemeni soldiers were killed and 12 were wounded in the operation.

The raid is only the latest in a series of blows the group has sustained since its defeat in al-Mukalla and Abyan province, which demonstrates its current state of weakness and vulnerability , analysts said.

Increased infighting

Disagreements and divisions have emerged among al-Qaeda leaders in Yemen, particularly among second-tier leaders, said Saeed Obeid al-Jamahi, a researcher who specialises in the affairs of al-Qaeda.

Some mid-level leaders have even defected to the "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" (ISIL), he told Al-Mashareq.

So far, he said, "the disagreements between them have yet to reach the level of direct confrontation", with the infighting and disputes playing out in the media.

The main disagreement between the leaders of al-Qaeda in Yemen is over whether to pledge allegiance to ISIL, al-Jamahi explained.

ISIL sees this as a duty, he said, while al-Qaeda is of the position that a pledge of allegiance to the emir of ISIL is optional and not obligatory.

" Each side believes in the legitimacy of its action in the field, while al-Qaeda has reservations about some of ISIL’s actions ," al-Jamahi added.

The disagreements among al-Qaeda leaders have led some to join ISIL, he said, which can be inferred from the "media diatribes between the two sides which indicate that defections have taken place".

"These disagreements have undoubtedly rattled and unsettled the terrorist groups and weakened their media narrative," he added.

Both groups are in a state of weakness, he said, in view of the continued successes of airstrikes that have inflicted heavy losses among them.

Laying down arms

The security situation in the city of Jaar in Abyan has been relatively stable since al-Qaeda was ousted, said Sheikh Nasr Ahmed, an elder from the area.

"We see no proliferation of the group’s elements as is usually the case after the army conducts a military operation against them, nor the ensuing attempts at counter-attacks against army personnel or residents," he told Al-Mashareq.

Al-Qaeda elements have laid down their arms and returned to their areas to resume their lives after years of fighting under the group’s banner, Ahmed said, adding that they have "shed the cloak of the group".

"In the past, al-Qaeda recruited gangsters in the area who somehow joined its ranks overnight," he said.

Most of these fighters returned to their areas in the wake of al-Qaeda’s recent defeat and expulsion from Abyan province, he added.

These gangs joined al-Qaeda out of self-interest, Ahmed said, and their return to their areas is "evidence of the group’s defeat and weakness".

"When the [mutual] interest between these gangs and the group came to an end, the members of these gangs abandoned their declared positions and claims they made when they joined the group, and the slogans they had raised dissipated when interest ended and defeat [was assured]," Ahmed said.

A series of defeats

"Al-Qaeda is weakened and fractured as a result of the divisions in its ranks and ISIL’s establishment of a foothold in areas that were once a social incubator for al-Qaeda," strategic expert Adnan al-Humairi told Al-Mashareq.

The series of defeats it has suffered at the hands of Yemeni and international forces also have dealt the group a serious blow, he said.

"ISIL and al-Qaeda are announcing the conduct of military operations that never happened just to tell the world they exist, while the truth is otherwise," he said.

"Their media agenda includes claiming on their jihadi websites that they repelled an attack by the army in al-Bayda province, while we heard nothing from the other side about military movements in that area," al-Humairi said.

"In the wake of the defeats al-Qaeda suffered in al-Mukalla and Abyan province, many of the group’s fighters returned to re-adjust to living in their areas and environments," he said.

The group also is having financial difficulties as its revenue sources have dried up, such as the oil revenue it claimed when it controlled al-Mukalla, he said.

Al-Qaeda’s leaders are severely weakened but cannot admit defeat, al-Humairi said, adding that the group has suffered defeat in al-Mukalla and Abyan and is being pursued by security forces and targeted by airstrikes.

"The killing of 30 al-Qaeda elements in one unprecedented operation in the history of confrontations between al-Qaeda and the army demonstrates the extent of the group’s weakness and confusion," he said.

The group has been abandoned by its elements "and left as an easy prey, a far cry from when it ruled cities and provinces for long periods of time", he added.