Raisi's visit to 'continent of opportunities' likely to bear little fruit

Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi and an accompanying delegation returned to Iran on Friday (July 14) after visiting three African countries -- Uganda, Kenya and Zimbabwe -- a trip that Iranian media has been covering with zeal.

Before departing on the trip, which began July 12, the first to Africa by an Iranian president in 11 years, Raisi described Africa as "the continent of opportunities".

The Iranian president expressed dissatisfaction with the level of trade with African countries, and said his administration is focused on increasing and expanding ties and trade with the continent.

Iran signed five trade agreements with Kenya, and four with Uganda.

Iran and Uganda agreed to waive visa requirements for tourist visits, co-operate in the agricultural sector and form a permanent joint committee, according to Raisi's office.

In Zimbabwe, agreements focused on collaboration in labour, agriculture, education, science and technology, Iranian state media reported.

The Iranian government said it is seeking uranium in its trade with Zimbabwe and Uganda, both rich in uranium deposits.

Iran has continued to expand its nuclear programme beyond agreed-upon limits, and has further expanded its stockpile of 5%, 20% and 60% enriched uranium, the United Kingdom, France and Germany (E3 group) said in recent statements.

This brings Iran's total enriched uranium stockpile to over 21 times the limit specified in the 2015 nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).

Look to the East?

Iran's state-owned and regime-affiliated media have covered the trip widely and touted it as a major achievement for the Islamic Republic.

But while Iran is hoping to forge new ties during the Africa tour, many experts and observers have expressed serious doubt that this will be a fruitful venture.

Even opinion pieces on moderate Iranian websites have criticised the hype surrounding the Africa visit and question the nature of this "achievement".

Asr-e Iran daily's expert columnist Saber Golanbari wrote that the trip is "too late", and has taken place while Tehran is under "major economic pressure".

Several other websites also mentioned Iran's near-bankrupt and "unsalvageable" economy, bent out of shape by sanctions and government neglect.

"The economy has had no place at all in Iranian foreign policy in the past few decades, virtually since the 1979 Islamic Revolution," a Tehran-based professor of political economy told Al-Mashareq, on condition of anonymity.

"Turning to non-Western countries, Raisi's administration is implementing [Iranian leader Ali] Khamenei's 'Look to the East' policy," he said.

"But the irony is that at least two of the three countries he has visited look to the West, as they have close relations with the United States and even Israel."

'Missed economic opportunity'

State-owned media have said Iran has a "great opportunity" to expand its ties with "friendly countries" and African nations are "the best choice", given the continent's size and population.

But a few editorials in Iran's independent domestic media note that Iran's main rivals for trade with Africa are Turkiyë, Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

They say Tehran has already missed the opportunity of trade with the continent amid international sanctions.

But even if Iran were not under sanctions, initiating successful trade with Africa would not have been easily feasible, one of the editorials said.

Following the visit by Raisi and senior Iranian officials to an Iranian scientific centre in Nairobi, where they saw of Iran-made drones, regime-affiliated websites have boasted heavily about "Iran's drones in Africa", suggesting they will be used in the agricultural sector.

Iran's drones are better known for their military deployment in conflicts from Yemen to Ukraine.

"Our country's name is now synonymous with drones," said a 56-year-old bank teller, who lives in Kerman and has two children. "We're sending drones to Russia, to Yemen and now to Africa."

"My husband and I are living paycheck to paycheck," she told Al-Mashareq, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Countless other families are worse off than we are."

"But regime officials only want to fill their own pockets, so the last thing they care about is the domestic economy and the public's welfare."

Not much to gain

What can Iran hope to achieve in Africa?

Iran's soft power diplomacy in Africa is lagging and unsophisticated, and its cultural influence is not great, particularly compared with that of China, panelists taking part in a Thursday Al-Jazeera discussion said.

Africa is majority Christian and Sunni Muslim, Kenya-based analyst Ngala Chome noted during the discussion, but there has been an increase in Kenya's Shia population since the 1980s, nurtured by Iranian charities.

Iran will likely seek to make inroads in small Shia communities in Africa, particularly in Kenya and Uganda, he said.

Kenya may be seeking Iran's help in countering al-Shabaab elements in Somalia, Chome said, though security and defence was not emphasised during the visit, which -- publicly at least -- focused on forging co-operation in development.

Tehran may have turned to Africa for geopolitical reasons, according to professor Eric Lob of Florida International University's Department of Politics and International Relations.

African states serve on the board of agencies such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and as non-permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, he noted, and can potentially wield influence in favour of Iran.

But Lob said he was "not overly optimistic" about the role Iran can play in Africa and the ways in which it could help the continent -- or about what Africa can gain from deepening ties with Iran, given the limitations of both sides.