With Russia mired in crisis, Iran asserts itself in Syria

As Russia grapples with successive crises, from heavy losses in Ukraine to rifts that threaten its internal stability after the failed Wagner Group mutiny, the Iranian regime is set to benefit in Syria by expanding the areas under its control.

Syria has been Russia's focal point in the Middle East, but the Kremlin's resources have been stretched following its assault on Ukraine, forcing it to redeploy some forces from Syria to the Ukrainian front.

The partial withdrawal of Russian forces has opened the door for forces allied with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to fill the vacuum and expand their presence in Syria, analysts told Al-Mashareq.

Meanwhile, they said, Iran's steady supply of drones to Russia, which has been using them in its war on Ukraine, has given the Iranian regime some leverage in its dealings with Russia in Syria.

"My sense is that Iran feels that Russia owes it something, and that Russia is in some way now beholden to Iran," US Air Force Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich said in a June 21 briefing.

Russian withdrawals from Syria "didn't include major military bases, like Hmeimim", said Sheyar Turko, an expert on IRGC-allied militias.

But they occurred across Syria and include "Syrian army bases where Russian forces were stationed to provide protection; ammunition warehouses; and sites of Russian weapons supplied by Moscow to Syria", he told Al-Mashareq.

In place of the Russian forces, "militiamen allied with the IRGC, whose areas of influence overlap with those of Russia, especially in Damascus, Aleppo, the Eastern Desert (Badiya) and Deir Ezzor", have stepped in, he said.

"The current situation in Syria can be briefly described in this way: Russia is withdrawing, Iran is expanding and the Syrian people, who have been paying the price since 2011, are alone and set to lose," he said.

Quest for primacy

"Though allies, Iran and Russia have been in a heated race for control over Syria," said al-Sharq Centre for Regional and Strategic Studies researcher Fathi al-Sayed, who specialises in Iranian affairs.

Each has different ambitions in Syria, with Russia regarding it as a strategic foothold in the Middle East and on the Mediterranean Sea, he told Al-Mashareq.

"As for Iran, it sees in Syria a key corridor for its presence in the Levant, not only for its political and military reach but also for its trade reach," he said.

"Syria is seen as a big market for the sale of Iranian products," Syrian economist and Damascus University lecturer Mahmoud Mustafa told Al-Mashareq.

"What is more important for Iran, however, is to benefit from its control over Syria's natural resources, including phosphate and oil, via the agreements that have been made over the past years with the Syrian government," he added.

Russia's quest for primacy as the Syrian regime's key partner has been weakened by the recently attempted mutiny of the Wagner Group -- a Russian mercenary force led by Yevgeny Prigozhin that has been active in Syria.

Following the botched uprising, Russian military police and the Syrian regime's intelligence apparatus arrested Wagner leaders, elements and recruitment officials in different provinces of Syria, al-Arabi al-Jadid reported June 27.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin flew to Syria to deliver a message to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that Wagner forces would no longer operate there independently, The Wall Street Journal reported June 28.

He urged al-Assad to stop Wagner fighters from leaving Syria without Moscow's oversight.

"The mutiny will open the door for new potential conflicts," Egyptian military analyst Abdel Karim Ahmed told Al-Mashareq, noting that a power vacuum will be created if the Wagner Group is prevented from operating in Syria.

Fallout for Russia

"Russia's major loss as a result of the Wagner crisis will be in Syria," Cairo University international relations professor Mohieddin Ghanem said.

Any tension between Russia and the Wagner Group will weaken both, he said.

Military analyst Wael Abdul Muttaleb said Russia will replace military and intelligence commanders, which will affect its performance in Syria, Africa and Ukraine.

"The Russian army has proven to be ineffective in the face of a modest force like Wagner, and also against the Ukrainian forces," he told Al-Mashareq.

The same is true for Russian intelligence, which had not discovered Prigozhin's intentions ahead of the attempted mutiny, he noted.

In countries such as Syria, Libya and the Central African Republic (CAR) where conflicts are playing out, the leaders need a strong supporter -- politically, militarily and financially, Abdul Muttaleb said.

Recent events have called into question the Russian regime's ability to remain a strong partner to these countries, he said.

"If one leg of that triangle is shaken, trust will erode and those countries will move to a stronger supporter," he added.