After al-Zawahiri demise, al-Qaeda may shift nexus to Yemen

ADEN -- There are signs that al-Qaeda is seeking to shift its main power base to Yemen, as it regroups in the aftermath of the death in Afghanistan of its former leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Yemeni researchers told Al-Mashareq.

Al-Zawahiri was killed by a US Hellfire missile in Kabul last July, opening the way for a troubled succession process that has seen Iran-based Egyptian extremist Saif al-Adel emerge as the group's presumed new leader.

Iran -- which has a history of harbouring al-Qaeda leaders -- stands to gain from al-Adel's leadership position, given al-Adel's sway in Yemen, where the extremist group has been observed co-operating with the Iran-backed Houthis.

The Houthis have enemies in common with al-Qaeda and some common objectives, researchers and analysts note.

Political analyst Mahmoud al-Taher pointed to the establishment of a joint Houthi/al-Qaeda operations room in Sanaa that has been known to co-ordinate terror operations in government-controlled parts of Yemen.

He noted that Iran has a long history of smuggling arms to the Houthis, and that Iranian weapons are being smuggled from Houthi-controlled Sanaa to al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda's branch in Somalia.

This makes Yemen an attractive destination for al-Qaeda, and one from which Iran also is positioned to profit, given its close relationship with al-Adel -- especially if al-Adel is named as al-Qaeda's official leader, he said.

Some analysts suggest Iran is keen to move al-Adel to Yemen, while others say Iran does not want him to leave and potentially slip out of Iranian control.

Fertile ground for expansion

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) still has the ability to carry out terror attacks, according to a July 2022 United Nations Security Council (UNSC) report.

Despite the setbacks it has suffered, AQAP poses a persistent threat in the Arabian Peninsula, per the report, submitted to the UNSC by the committee on the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS) and al-Qaeda.

This threat is now expanding, as the group aspires to carry out international attacks, it said, also noting collaboration between the group and the Houthis.

"It is no longer a secret that Iran is controlling al-Qaeda and manipulating the policies and course of action of al-Qaeda leaders," political analyst Fares al-Beel told Al-Mashareq.

Iran sees "Yemen as a fertile environment for the expansion of terrorism", he said, and has been taking advantage of the inherent contradictions of a collaboration between the Houthis and al-Qaeda.

He pointed to the mutual assistance between the Houthis and al-Qaeda.

"They are mirror images of each other, or two sides of the same coin, and the evidence is the Houthis' dealings with al-Qaeda elements in al-Bayda and Radaa and also its release of [al-Qaeda] prisoners when it entered Sanaa," he said.

According to al-Beel, Iran sees "moving the leadership of al-Qaeda to Yemen as a justification for maintaining the Houthis' power and weapons and its [Iran's] influence in Yemen".

Iran has some leverage over al-Qaeda, Yemeni Deputy Minister of Justice Faisal al-Majeedi said.

This is because Iran hosted many al-Qaeda leaders who were forced out of Iraq and Afghanistan, and in later stages used them in Syria, Iraq and some parts of Yemen "when it sensed military defeat in the areas in which it had a presence".

"Iran never can be trusted as an ally for peace and stability in the region because it pursues extremism on the Shia side and seeks to protect it by supporting extremism on the Sunni side," al-Majeedi said.

Saif al-Adel and Yemen

"Al-Qaeda leader Saif al-Adel has the support and backing of AQAP, and has the allegiance of Khaled Batarfi, the top leader in the branch," said political analyst Faisal Ahmed.

"He also has the support of most of the branch's leaders, most notably Saad al-Awlaki, who was the most prominent leader to compete with Batarfi for the leadership of the group's branch in the Arabian Peninsula," he said.

Al-Adel supervises AQAP, he added, "and has its compliance and obedience, as evidenced by the financial support sent to him to support the group's branch in Syria, and also enjoys the support of most al-Qaeda branches".

In a February analysis, the Sanaa Centre for Strategic Studies suggests there are three possible scenarios for the future of al-Qaeda's leadership, following the death of al-Zawahiri.

The first is the appointment of a new emir, a competitor to Saif al-Adel, with the latter remaining as a de facto leader, especially with regard to foreign operations and general supervision of the group's branches in Syria, Yemen and Somalia.

The second is a complex scenario, and involves either the appointment of a new emir loyal to al-Adel and the transfer of the general command centre to outside Afghanistan (most likely to Yemen), the report said.

In this scenario, Batarfi would be a possible candidate, or alternately a figure from al-Shabaab, given its strength and financial resources, it said.

The third -- and likeliest -- scenario is the official appointment of al-Adel as the new al-Qaeda emir, which would most likely necessitate his departure from Iran, either to Yemen, Somalia or Afghanistan.

"Iran is working to see that happen and make Saif al-Adel the new leader in order to control all his activities," Ahmed said.

He noted that Iran has provided a safe haven for al-Qaeda leaders in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and has released the group's leaders from prisons.

It also has hosted al-Qaeda leaders who fled from the southern regions following battles with the Yemeni army there, he said, suggesting that all of this has been done in order to win support for al-Adel.