Putin's Ukraine misadventure is costing Russia dearly in Middle East

As Russia marks the first anniversary of its war on Ukraine this week, it has become economically and militarily depleted, throwing into jeopardy its once ambitious plans to extend its influence and power in the Middle East.

Russia is showing clear signs of weakness in its military and political capabilities, experts told Al-Mashareq, noting that it will continue to pay a heavy price for President Vladimir Putin's ill-conceived policies and actions.

As a consequence of the decisions he has made, they said, Putin is losing control over the power base he has been attempting to build in the Middle East, where Russian forces have been shoring up the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad.

"Although it appears that there is no winner or loser in the Russian-Ukrainian war so far, from the political standpoint Russia is the loser," military analyst Ahmed Abdo told Al-Mashareq.

"The same is true from the military and economic standpoint," he said. "Exhaustion is clearly showing on the Russian army, which is beginning to suffer from lack of logistical support" in Ukraine.

Weakened Russia

Russia's ongoing presence in Syria and participation in the Syrian war "have weakened it and severely dissipated its capabilities", Abdo said.

The ranks of the Russian military are depleted, with reserve forces being called up and an unhealthy reliance on mercenary forces such as the Wagner Group.

Russia has even been using Wagner to bolster its Ukraine frontline presence with prisoners.

"The entire world is standing with Ukraine, with the exception, of course, of some parties known for their hostility to the international will, such as China and Iran," Abdo said.

He noted, however, that "Iran cannot provide political support [to Russia] because it itself lacks international political respect because of its own expansionist projects".

"As for China, it will not risk more hostility with the international community."

The demise of the Soviet Union should have enabled Russia to take a fresh approach in the political and strategic sphere, said al-Sharq Centre for Regional and Strategic Studies researcher Sami Gheit.

Its political path "should have been compatible" with that of other world powers, he told Al-Mashareq, "but Putin has turned young Russia into an old Russia".

And now, the Russian interior is starting to get restless because of Putin's miscalculations, he said. "Putin is behaving in a clearly irrational manner by exaggerating his capabilities and defying the international will."

"It seems that he is suffering from delusions of grandeur," Gheit said.

Heavy price

Strategically speaking, no country can fight "two wars on two separate continents at the same time", military analyst Shaher Yassin told Al-Mashareq.

"Today, Russia is fighting a brutal war in Ukraine and another in Syria," he said. "Both wars have turned into what can be described as a war of attrition."

"The Russian army will pay a heavy price for this war, as will the Russian economy and Russian society, if everything is not stopped promptly," he added.

Yassin called on Russia to urgently "search for political exits to stop the losses, especially the political losses in the Middle East region".

Fundamental political changes are under way in the Middle East, he said, noting that ultimately, governments and leaders in the region seek to preserve only their own interests and the interests of their people.

Russia has become more problematic in that regard "in light of the intransigence of Russian politics and tranches of international sanctions imposed on it".

Thus, moving away from the Kremlin is the safe move for countries that are already economically and politically linked with Western countries, including the United States, that oppose Russian aims, he said.

In other words, Yassin explained, these countries would not be willing to compromise their own best interests to take positions that would ultimately have a negative impact on their economic and political interests.