![Yemenis displaced by the conflict receive food aid and supplies to meet their basic needs at a camp in Hays district in al-Hodeidah on March 29. Food prices have doubled since last year, and as Ukraine supplies almost a third of Yemen's wheat imports, there are fears of a deepening famine. [Khaled Ziad/AFP]](/cnmi_am/images/2022/06/23/35877-Yemen-food-aid-700_496.webp)
ADEN -- Russia's war on Ukraine has exacerbated the economic and humanitarian crisis in Yemen, where the number of residents suffering from food insecurity is projected to rise to 19 million in 2022, experts said.
In its June 7 Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank warned that "compounding the damage from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has magnified the slowdown in the global economy".
The global economy is "entering what could become a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation", it said, which "raises the risk of stagflation, with potentially harmful consequences for middle- and low-income economies".
"The economic and humanitarian crisis in Yemen is growing," said Brett Rayner, who heads an International Monetary Fund (IMF) team that met with the Yemeni authorities in Amman, Jordan, from May 31 to June 7.
![Poor Yemeni families receive flour rations and other basic foods from charities in the southern province of Lahj on March 29. [Saleh al-Obeidi/AFP]](/cnmi_am/images/2022/06/23/35878-yemen-camel-food-700_496.webp)
Poor Yemeni families receive flour rations and other basic foods from charities in the southern province of Lahj on March 29. [Saleh al-Obeidi/AFP]
"With the population already suffering from seven years of conflict, the effects of the war in Ukraine have only exacerbated the crisis," he said in a statement after the meetings.
"According to the World Food Programme (WFP), the number of food insecure people is projected to reach 19 million (two-thirds of the population) this year," Rayner said.
Fully 24 million inhabitants of Yemen already require some type of assistance.
"Rising global food prices and recent exchange rate depreciation have pushed [annual] inflation to nearly 60%," Rayner said. "As a net importer of fuel, higher oil prices have added to balance of payments pressures and financing needs [for Yemen]."
Amid this challenging environment, however, "recent progress towards peace has improved prospects for economic stability", he said, with the continuing truce having a positive effect on confidence and trade.
A significant external financing package announced by the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) in April also has had an impact, he said, which has taken some pressure off domestic prices.
Developing countries suffer
"Developing countries embroiled in conflicts will be the hardest hit by the repercussions of the Russo-Ukrainian war and the rise in wheat prices," economist Fares al-Najjar told Al-Mashareq.
"The rise in oil prices and shortage of wheat supplies will impact all goods and services in all countries, but that impact is catastrophic for a country like Yemen, which has been devastated by [the war]," he said.
Two years ago, al-Najjar said, the number of Yemenis suffering from food insecurity had reached 16.5 million, per the United Nations (UN).
The increase of that number by more than two million "underscores a deterioration in humanitarian and living conditions due to the continuation of the war", al-Najjar said.
Commodity prices have risen significantly because of the rise in oil derivative prices, and this has led to an overall rise in prices, he said.
Yemen "imports 90% of its needs, and the raw materials used in production at local factories also are imported, and both are negatively affected by what is happening".
Another factor that raises the prices of products and services, al-Najjar said, is "the volatility of the national currency as a result of the economic deterioration and continued decline in Yemen's oil exports".
"The Yemeni economy suffers from structural imbalances due to the division of resources between the warring parties and disruption of exports," economist Abdul Aziz Thabet said.
"This caused the exchange rate of the Yemeni riyal to drop to 1,650 YER/US dollar in late 2021 in areas controlled by the legitimate government," he said.
The depreciation of the currency contributed to the growth of inflation to this record level, which has resulted in rising prices for goods and services, he added.
Urgent need for assistance
"The rise in prices worldwide, decline in the [value of the] national currency and the drop in wages will exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and hunger, and worsen food insecurity," Thabet said.
The increase in the number of Yemenis suffering from food insecurity also will have an adverse impact on public health, he said, as they become more vulnerable to various diseases.
The World Bank's warnings are consistent with UN data, which indicate that 80% of the population is in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, Studies and Economic Media Centre (SEMC) chairman Mustafa Nasr said.
"There are levels of food insecurity, and there is a continuous deterioration of food security," Nasr said.
This deterioration "stems from several factors, including the continuation of the war and its high costs", he said.
The 60% inflation rate is "very high", he said.
"It reflects the cost difference that citizens bear annually as a result of the continuous deterioration of the national currency and resulting direct effects on commodity prices."
