Terrorism

ISIS attempt to rally in Yemen doomed to fail: analysts

By Nabil Abdullah al-Tamimi in Aden

The rifle of a suspected al-Qaeda militant lies on the ground following government airstrikes in this file photo from March 10th, 2012, in a mountainous area of al-Bayda province. [AFP PHOTO/STR]

The rifle of a suspected al-Qaeda militant lies on the ground following government airstrikes in this file photo from March 10th, 2012, in a mountainous area of al-Bayda province. [AFP PHOTO/STR]

The Yemen branch of the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS) has launched an aggressive bid to strengthen and consolidate its presence in the southern province of al-Bayda, but is unlikely to succeed in this endeavour, experts said.

This is because ISIS faces fierce opposition from rival al-Qaeda -- with ongoing battles between the two extremist groups weakening both -- and because the local population does not accept it, they said.

Despite this infertile ground, however, ISIS's "Wilayat al-Yemen" on Wednesday (April 3rd) released a new video in which it urges its supporters to "immigrate" to its strongholds in al-Bayda.

In the video, circulated online by various extremist social media accounts, ISIS urges its supporters to make their way to al-Bayda, and announces that living in areas that are not under its control is "forbidden", describing these areas as "abodes of kufr".

It enjoins medical professionals, administrators and preachers to join it, and thereby contribute to the creation of the so-called "Islamic State" in Yemen, and affirms its allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Move reveals weakness

In a Tuesday social media post, Oxford University researcher Elisabeth Kendall commented that "ISIS is moving from bad to worse".

She noted that the group had attempted to justify blowing up a water well and pump in al-Bayda's al-Qayfa area last week by describing its criminal activity as an "economic war on God's enemies".

The battle between ISIS and al-Qaeda has escalated, she wrote, noting that the al-Qaeda aligned "Sons of al-Qayfa" had announced a reward of five million Yemeni riyals ($20,000) for the ISIS leader in Yakla, Khalid al-Marfadi.

In the ongoing conflict between al-Qaeda and ISIS, the latter group appears to be under the most pressure, political analyst Adnan al-Humairi told Al-Mashareq.

It seems that ISIS sustained heavy losses in its strongholds in Yakla, as the tribes in that area supported al-Qaeda leaders who hail from the tribe, he said.

The announcement of a cash reward for al-Marfadi "confirms he has disappeared from his main stronghold in Yakla and that he is no longer there", he added.

ISIS attempts to regroup

Al-Humairi said ISIS's invitation to its supporters to "immigrate" to al-Bayda serves as proof that it has lost many of its fighters and that it needs to recruit new members, in Yemen and elsewhere.

"It also seems from its call for doctors and specialists to join it that it has wounded elements who need medical treatment," he noted.

"This shows that ISIS could not lure in al-Qayfa tribesmen, and that is why it is urging ISIS elements who lost their positions in Syria and Iraq to immigrate to Yemen," he said.

"ISIS's aim for the time being is to regroup its ranks and recover its strength in other areas within al-Bayda," he said. "Once it regroups, it will look at a new strategy for confronting al-Qaeda."

"Most ISIS elements are foreigners and not accepted by local communities, given what happened in Syria and Iraq in terms of destruction," he said.

With its call for its supporters to "immigrate" to al-Bayda, ISIS seeks to concentrate its strength in specific areas, politician and researcher Adel al-Shujaa told Al-Mashareq.

This indicates that for the time being it is focused on regrouping rather than fighting, he said.

"ISIS's video to its supporters was made to prepare Yemen for receiving ISIS elements who are coming from Syria," he added, noting that the "video is like a call for preparing for a new condition".

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